Numbers and Stories: New Directions for Climate Storylines and Scenarios

The aim of “Numbers and Stories” is to survey and discuss new directions in climate change research, with an interdisciplinary approach. The theme of the workshop revolves around the use of qualitative and quantitative methods in climate change research, most importantly the development and use of scenarios for emission and decarbonization pathways, the storyline approach to detection and attribution of extreme weather events, and their repercussions for climate policy under deep uncertainty. Scenarios are key tools for depicting future climate and play a key role in assessments such as those of the IPCC. As the community looks forward to developing the next generation of scenarios, it is important to discuss which elements should be included in the narrative and operationalized in the qualitative and quantitative assessments. The workshop is planned as a full-day event with individual talks on Storylines in the morning and Scenarios/Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) in the afternoon. We will end with a panel discussion focused on the recent AR6 IPCC report with invited panelists, speakers and the organizing/scientific committee.

Organizing/Scientific Committee
Hernan Bobadilla (DMAT), Rawad El Skaf (DMAT), Francesco Nappo (DMAT),
Massimo Tavoni (DIG), Giovanni Valente (DMAT).

Program

9:00-9:20 Irene Sabadini (Chair of the Mathematics Dept.,
PoliMi) & Paolo Volonté (Coordinator of META): Opening words

Session I: Climate Storylines
Chair: Malvina Ongaro (Philosophy, PoliMi)

9:20-10:10 Julia Mindlin (Climate Science, Buenos Aires):
A way to assemble the climate story: the value of the storyline approach

10:10-11:00 Vincent Lam (Philosophy, Bern): The epistemology of physical climate storylines

Chair: Marianna Musmeci (Sociology, Milano Politecnico)

11:30-12:20 Emily Boyd (Sustainability Science, Lund): tba

Session II: Scenarios & Integrated Assessment Models
Chair: Riccardo Chesta (Sociology, PoliMi)

14:30-15:20 Steven Yearley (Sociology, Edinburgh): tba

15:20-16:10 Sara Giarola (Engineering, PoliMi): Enhancing the usefulness of emission scenarios to inform climate science

Chair: Giovanni Valente (Philosophy, PoliMi)

16:40-17:30 Massimo Marinacci (Economics, Bocconi):
Decision making under model misspecification

Panel Discussion: Assessment of IPCC AR6

Moderator: Giovanni Valente (Philosophy, PoliMi)
17:30-17:45 Hernan Bobadilla, Rawad El Skaf &
Francesco Nappo (Philosophy, PoliMi): Questions

17:45-18:30 Andrea Castelletti (Engineering, PoliMi),
Emanuela Colombo (Engineering, PoliMi),
Mathias Frisch (Philosophy, Hannover),
Wayne Myrvold (Philosophy, Western Ontario),
Massimo Tavoni (Economics, PoliMi) & all invited speakers: Discussion

The event will be held in English.

“Numbers and Stories” is an in-person only event.
Participation is free of charge.
Registration is required LINK